Why Waiting for a Recession to Move Might Not Be the Wise Choice You Think

WWH
Jul 3
3 min read

Fear of a recession has surfaced once again in the news cycle, leading many potential buyers and sellers to pause their plans. With uncertainty looming over economic conditions, is it truly wise to wait before making a change?

A recent survey from John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) and Keeping Current Matters (KCM) found that an astonishing 68% of people are holding off on buying or selling due to concerns about the economy. However, this delay isn’t just about fear; for some, it's based on cautious optimism.

Let’s explore the logic behind this thinking and why postponing your plans until a recession may not be the smartest strategy.

The Double-Edged Sword of Economic Uncertainty

Many prospective homebuyers are waiting because they think a recession could offer a golden opportunity. According to Realtor.com, about 30% of homebuyers surveyed in early 2025 felt more inclined to purchase during a recession.

They believe that as the economy slows, the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates to stimulate growth. This could lead to lower mortgage rates, making home buying more affordable.

Historically, mortgage rates have indeed declined during economic downturns. However, it's crucial to remember that interest rates are just one piece of the puzzle.

A Historical Perspective on Home Prices

This is where the story takes an unexpected turn. Many hopeful buyers anticipate that home prices will decrease during a recession. Yet, historical data tells a different story.

Research from Cotality (formerly CoreLogic) shows that home prices rose in four out of the last six recessions. This might come as a shock. The common belief is that prices fall during tough economic times.

Understanding this trend is vital for anyone considering a move. The fact that the economy might slow down doesn’t guarantee that home values will drop. So, if you hope to snag a lower price, you may find yourself paying more.

The Consequences of Waiting

What does this mean for potential buyers and sellers? If you’re waiting for a recession to act, you might miss more opportunities than you gain.

While you hold off, other buyers and sellers continue to make their moves. By delaying your decision, you risk missing out on your dream home or selling at a good price.

Additionally, fluctuating inventory levels and increasing buyer competition could put you in a weaker position when you finally decide to act. Timing and risk management are key, and sometimes waiting can lead to missed chances.

The Current Market Dynamics

Although it might seem wise to wait for “the right time,” it’s essential to assess current market dynamics. For example, despite economic uncertainty, many areas are experiencing a strong demand for homes.

People are still actively buying and selling; they are simply doing so with caution. The market remains competitive in many regions, often marked by limited inventory and bidding wars.

Consulting with local real estate professionals can provide valuable insights tailored to your specific situation.

What Should You Do?

So, what is the best course of action? Instead of waiting for a recession to make your move, consider these approaches:

Assess Your Financial Situation: Understand your budget and what you can realistically afford. Waiting for lower rates might not benefit you if home values continue to rise.
Explore Options Now: The market is still thriving. If you discover a home you love or see strong selling conditions for your current home, now may be the right time to act.
Consult Professionals: Work with experienced real estate agents who know your local market. They can help you navigate uncertain times and guide you in making informed choices.
Look Beyond Rates: Consider not just interest rates but also the overall cost of the home. A slight decrease in rates may not offset a significant spike in pricing.

Making Your Move

Waiting for a recession before deciding to buy or sell may seem sensible, but it might not be the best choice. Historical trends suggest that home prices often rise, and the current market remains vibrant, meaning postponing could lead to lost opportunities.

The decision to buy or sell isn’t solely about timing; it involves your unique circumstances and the current market landscape. Take that step when you feel ready, and don’t let economic fears keep you from your goals.

Staying informed and proactive in a shifting market can help you make the best decisions for your future. The right time to move is when it feels appropriate for you, not dictated by fear or speculation.