With a Presidential election on the horizon, it’s only natural to wonder how it might influence your plans, especially if you’re thinking about buying or selling a home. The uncertainty surrounding elections can lead to questions and concerns about what lies ahead for the housing market.
The good news? Historically, Presidential elections have only had a minor, short-term impact on the housing market. Let’s dive into the data to give you a clearer picture of what typically happens to home sales, prices, and mortgage rates during election cycles, so you can make informed decisions about your real estate plans.
Home Sales
Leading up to a Presidential election, there’s often a slight dip in home sales as some buyers and sellers opt to wait until after the election before making any major moves. However, this slowdown is typically brief. The market has a strong track record of rebounding quickly in the year following an election.
Data from the Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) and the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows that after 9 of the last 11 Presidential elections, home sales increased the following year, a trend that’s been consistent since the early 1990s.
Home Prices
When it comes to home prices, there’s usually little to worry about during an election year. Historical data shows that home prices continue their usual trend, regardless of the election. As residential appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist points out, election years don’t disrupt the market’s ongoing price trends. In fact, after 7 of the last 8 Presidential elections, home prices rose in the subsequent year. The only exception was from 2008 to 2009, during the height of the housing market crash, which was an anomaly in more ways than one.
Mortgage Rates
Mortgage rates are another key factor to consider, as they directly affect your monthly payments if you’re financing a home. Interestingly, in 8 of the last 11 Presidential election years, mortgage rates decreased from July to November, according to Freddie Mac. This trend seems to be holding true for 2024 as well, with many experts forecasting that rates will continue to ease slightly throughout the year. This is promising news for buyers, as lower mortgage rates can enhance your purchasing power.
What This Means for You
In summary, while Presidential elections can cause some uncertainty, their impact on the housing market is generally minimal and temporary. As Lisa Sturtevant, Chief Economist at Bright MLS, notes, the housing market during election years doesn’t tend to look much different from other years. So, if you’re considering buying or selling a home, there’s no need to put your plans on hold. The market remains strong and resilient, and history suggests it will continue to be so.
While it’s natural to feel a bit apprehensive during an election year, the housing market has shown time and again that it can withstand the uncertainty. If you need guidance navigating the market during this election cycle, consider reaching out to a local real estate agent who can help you make the best decisions for your situation.
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